The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.31%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.16%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -1.51%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are down -0.29%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are down -1.47%.
Stock indexes are mostly lower today as a sell-off in South Korean chipmakers weighed on technology stocks and crude oil prices jumped amid renewed US-Iran hostilities. South Korea’s Kospi Index closed down more than -8% today after SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics plunged more than -10% on concerns that the artificial intelligence boom has become overextended. On the positive side, energy producers are moving higher with crude oil prices up sharply.
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An escalation in hostilities in the Middle East is weighing on market sentiment, with WTI crude oil (CLQ26) up more than +3% today after the US, over the weekend, launched fresh missile attacks against Iran, targeting Iranian air-defense systems, coastal radar sites, and missile and drone capabilities. Meanwhile, Iran launched retaliatory missile and drone attacks at targets in Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar. Iran also attacked two vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday.
The outlook for strong Q2 earnings, which will begin this week, is a bullish factor for stocks. Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence suggest Q2 earnings may increase by +23%, close to Q1’s blowout earnings of +30%, which was more than double the +12% analysts had expected. AI spending is expected to account for most of earnings, with AI infrastructure stocks set to contribute nearly 60% of the S&P 500’s earnings-per-share growth in Q2.
The markets are discounting a 36% chance of a +25 bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 28-29.
Overseas stock markets are lower today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.06%. China’s Shanghai Composite tumbled to a 3-month low and closed down -2.06%. Japan’s Nikkei-225 Stock Average fell to a 1-month low and closed down -1.92%.
Interest Rates
September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) today are down -4 ticks, and the 10-year T-note yield is up +2.2 bp to 4.583%. T-notes are under pressure from today’s +3% jump in WTI crude oil, which raises inflation expectations. Losses in T-notes are contained, as today’s slide in stocks has boosted safe-haven demand for government debt.
European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German bund yield is up +3.3 bp to 3.099%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +6.9 bp to 4.941%.
Swaps are discounting a 14% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on July 23.
US Stock Movers
Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are falling today and are weighing on the broader market. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is down more than -3%. Sandisk (SNDK) is down more than -9% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and Western Digital (WDC), Arm Holdings (ARM), Micron Technology (MU), and Marvel Technology (MRVL) are down more than -6%. Also, Intel (INTC), Lam Research (LRCX), Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Applied Materials (AMAT), and KLA Corp (KLAC) are down more than -4%, and Microchip Technology (MCHP), ASML Holding NV (ASML), and Texas Instruments (TXN) are down more than -3%. In addition, Analog Devices (ADI), Broadcom (AVGO), and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) are down more than -2%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are falling today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) down more than -2%. Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is down more than -4%, and Strategy (MSTR) is down more than -3%. Also, MARA Holdings (MARA), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) are down more than -2%, and Coinbase Global (COIN) is down more than -1%.
Energy producers and service providers are climbing today, with WTI crude oil up more than +3%. Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Phillips 66 (PSX), and Valero Energy (VLO) are up more than +4%, and APA Corp (APA), ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), Haliburton (HAL), and ConocoPhillips (COP) are up more than +3%. Also, Baker Hughes (BKR), Devon Energy (DVN), Diamondback Energy (FANG), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are up more than +2%, and Chevron (CVX) is up more than +2% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials. In addition, SLB Ltd (SLB) is up more than +1%.
SK Hynix ADRs (SKHY) are down more than -6% after the stock plunged more than -15% in South Korean trading, fueling concerns that the AI-trade has become overstretched.
First Hawaiian (FHB) is down more than -5% after agreeing to acquire TriCo Bancshares for $63.12/share in an all-stock transaction.
Papa John’s International (PZZA) is down more than -3% after Bank of America Global Research downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral with a price target of $34.
TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) is up more than +10% after First Hawaiian agreed to acquire the company for $63.12/share in an all-stock transaction.
Humana (HUM) is up more than +1% after Wells Fargo Securities upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a price target of $502.
Biogen (BIIB) is up more than +1% after Truist Securities upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $235.
American Express (AXP) is up more than +1% after JPMorgan Chas upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $400.
Earnings Reports(7/13/2026)
American Resources Corp (AREC), Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL), FB Financial Corp (FBK).
