Key Points
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Twenty-six years of data show that, on average, big IPOs gain less than 4% in their first year.
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SpaceX stock could be especially volatile because the company is making major bets on risky rocket technology and orbital data centers.
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The market has already punished tech companies that investors worry are overinvesting in AI infrastructure.
- 10 stocks we like better than Space Exploration Technologies ›
Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock has been on a wild ride since the company went public just over a month ago. As of this writing, its share price is below its first-day opening price of $150.
But where might it be in 12 months?
A host of Wall Street analysts recently weighed in, setting a wide range of price targets for SpaceX stock, from $300 to $800. A more realistic forecast, however, based on two decades of IPO history, is that 11 months from now, its shares will be around $156.
That’s right. SpaceX stock could be just 4% higher than its opening price of $150 on its initial public offering (IPO) day. Here’s why.
Big IPOs tend to have small returns 1 year later
Reporting from Barron’s last month said that large IPOs, the ones with market caps above $10 billion, usually have gains of just 3.5% after their first year of trading. The periodical looked at data compiled by Jeffries that analyzed the performances of large IPOs over the past 26 years.
If we round that up to 4%, and add it to SpaceX’s opening price of $150, then the company’s shares — based on historical mega-IPO data over a quarter-century — will likely be about $156.
Other data from the University of Florida points to disappointing IPO results as well, with an average return of just 2.9% in the first two years for IPOs between 2010 and 2024.
Reliably predicting what the share price of any company will be in a year is impossible. And there are plenty of optimistic takes out there elaborating on why SpaceX is a unique company, and should be valued accordingly.
But history should probably be our guide when considering SpaceX stock right now, especially as the company is unprofitable and is spending money hand over fist on huge bets that may not pay off.
SpaceX will bring its own level of unpredictability to the table
If newly public companies are inherently volatile, I think SpaceX will be especially so.
There are a few reasons for this, including that it is making huge bets on difficult rocket technologies and an unproven plan to deploy orbital artificial intelligence (AI) data centers.
SpaceX asserts that eventually, its Starship rocket will reduce the cost of launching payloads by more than 90% compared to its current Falcon platforms. I’m optimistic about SpaceX’s rocket capabilities, but if it fails to do this soon, or if there are significant setbacks in bringing Starship into commercial use, then it could cause the stock to slide.
And then there’s its ambitious plan for satellite-based AI data centers. The company aims to use its rockets to deploy data center satellites into orbit on the premise that operating them where they can be powered by 24-hour solar energy will be cheaper overall than siting them on Earth. Even the most optimistic estimates put this type of technology at least several years away, and it’s still uncertain whether it would be cheaper — even if it’s possible.
Any prolonged delays or missteps on the company’s path toward deployment, or a pivot away from orbital data centers, could cause investors to lose faith in SpaceX.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly right now, SpaceX is spending wildly on all of this tech. Its capital expenditures were about $27 billion in 2025, and accelerated to $10 billion in the first quarter of 2026. Investors are growing increasingly skeptical of such spending. SpaceX is also unprofitable, with a net loss of $5 billion last year.
If investors see the company making progress on some of its aggressive goals, perhaps they’ll put up with the high outlays for a bit longer. But many investors are already giving the side-eye to more-established tech companies that are ramping up AI spending. They likely won’t give SpaceX a free pass, either.
All of which means that SpaceX stock likely won’t be able to overcome the gravity of historical post-IPO trends. I think its shares will remain volatile, so investors would be better off observing the company’s progress from afar for at least a year.
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Chris Neiger has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Jefferies Financial Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
