Key Points
Let’s get right to it: A $25,000 investment in Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock today could be worth over $100,000 by 2050 if revenue grows 19% annually. By the same token, the same investment in SpaceX is more likely to be worth about $28,000 by 2050 if revenue grows more moderately — albeit still bullish — at a rate of 13% annually.
Let’s unpack these predictions.
First, keep in mind that SpaceX carried a roughly $1.8 trillion valuation at its initial public offering (IPO), despite reporting about $19 billion in 2025 revenue. At the time of its IPO, the stock was already trading close to 100 times annual sales — a figure that hasn’t changed much, even after the stock has plummeted over 30% from its all-time high.
Under the bullish scenario, SpaceX would need to quadruple by 2050 for a $25,000 investment to hit $100,000 or more, which would imply a $7 trillion market cap. If we value that version of SpaceX at a price-to-sales ratio of about 5, then the space company would need to generate about $1.5 trillion in annual sales by that year, or almost 19% revenue growth annually.
That’s not technically impossible, but it would also mean SpaceX has become the most dominant launch, satellite, and artificial intelligence (AI) company in the world. In short, very little has to go wrong, and if it does, it can’t go wrong for long.
Under a less bullish scenario, SpaceX’s valuation would rise only modestly, from about $1.8 trillion to about $2 trillion by 2050. If, again, we assume a price-to-sales ratio of 5, SpaceX would generate about $400 billion in 2050 sales, which implies compound annual revenue growth of about 13% for the next 25 years.
That’s still impressive growth, even if the concomitant growth in the stock is only modest.
These are, of course, my own figures, but they drive home the point that, however you slice it, SpaceX stock is still very pricy right now. Even as the stock nears its IPO price of $135, I think long-term investors should continue to wait. SpaceX may become one of the most important companies in the world, but at today’s valuation, much of that success appears already priced in.
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Steven Porrello has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
