Key Points
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Fed Chair Kevin Warsh hinted that an interest rate increase could be coming.
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Higher interest rates tend to have an adverse impact on the stock market.
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With tech stocks dominating right now, it could lead to more significant volatility.
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Major market indexes have been surging lately, with the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) up by 22% and 28%, respectively, over the past 12 months.
However, that growth could potentially slow going forward, as Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh recently suggested that the central bank may be poised to raise interest rates.
“[W]e’ve seen that prices are too high,” he noted during a July panel discussion with CNBC. While that seven-word phrase may sound innocuous, it hints that the Fed will be more hawkish. Interest rate increases can help rein in inflation, but they can also put a damper on the stock market. Here’s what that may mean for investors.
Will the Fed trigger a recession in 2026?
To be clear, there’s no way to predict exactly what the Fed will do or how Wall Street may respond. However, CME Group‘s FedWatch tool, which uses 30-Day Fed Fund futures pricing data to predict future rate moves, estimates a nearly 90% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates by December 2026.
Why does that matter to the stock market? Higher interest rates make it more expensive for companies to borrow money, and that could have a particularly significant impact on today’s market.
Much of the recent growth has been driven by AI spending. Tech companies are rushing to build data centers and other AI-related infrastructure in hopes that it will trigger a new wave of revenue. Worldwide, companies spent around $1 trillion on data centers in 2025 — a figure that is expected to quadruple by 2030.
Importantly, the top 10 largest companies in the S&P 500 also now account for over 40% of the index’s total value, and most of those organizations — like Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, and Google parent company Alphabet — are heavily invested in AI. If the tech giants pull back on expansion and growth slows, it could drag down the overall market.
Again, this doesn’t necessarily mean that a recession is looming. But the Fed is in a tough place. With inflation remaining stubborn and consumers seeking relief from high costs, the central bank will have a hard time justifying keeping interest rates low — perhaps at the expense of the market.
The best move you can make right now is to ensure your portfolio is well-diversified and that you’re only investing in healthy stocks with long-term growth potential. If volatility is looming, the right investments will be key to pulling through a bear market.
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Katie Brockman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Apple, CME Group, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
