How much a stock’s price changes over time is a significant driver for most investors. Not only can price performance impact your portfolio, but it can help you compare investment results across sectors and industries as well.
Another factor that can influence investors is FOMO, or the fear of missing out, especially with tech giants and popular consumer-facing stocks.
What if you’d invested in Murphy USA (MUSA) ten years ago? It may not have been easy to hold on to MUSA for all that time, but if you did, how much would your investment be worth today?
Murphy USA’s Business In-Depth
With that in mind, let’s take a look at Murphy USA’s main business drivers.
Murphy USA Inc. is a leading independent retailer of motor fuel and convenience merchandise in the United States. The El Dorado, AR-based company, in its current form, came into existence following the 2013 spin-off of Murphy Oil Corporation’s downstream business into a separate, independent and publicly-traded entity.
Murphy USA markets refined products through a chain of retail stations, almost all of which are located near a Walmart supercenter, primarily in the Southeast, Southwest and Midwest United States.
As of Mar 31, 2025, the company had a total of 1,761 Company stores – under Murphy USA and Murphy Express brands – encompassing 27 states. Of the total, majority of the stores are branded Murphy USA, some are standalone Murphy Express locations, while the remaining are branded as QuickChek stores. Apart from the retail outlets, Murphy USA operates certain product distribution terminals and ethanol production plants.
The company, which caters to approximately 1.6 million customers daily, also owns a dedicated line space on the Colonial Pipeline – the largest refined products system in the country and the biggest gasoline mover.
Meanwhile, Murphy USA’s revenue increased by 0.7% year over year to $4.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, while the company’s income was $141.9 million (or $7.53 per diluted share), down 0.4% year over year. Operating cash flow decreased to $245.5 million in Q4 2025 from $248.7 million in the prior year period.
Murphy USA remains committed to returning excess cash to shareholders through continued share buyback programs. As part of this initiative, the fuel retailer repurchased $175.4 million in shares in the fourth quarter of 2025 at an average price of $67.5 per share.
Total retail gallons increased by 3.1% to 1,234.2 million gallons for the fourth quarter of 2025, but same-store sales (SSS) volumes were down 0.6%. Murphy USA’s 2026 guidance includes between 45 to 55 new stores and up to 30 raze-and-rebuilds, $890-$900 million in merchandise margin contribution, and $475-$525 million in capital expenditures.
Bottom Line
While anyone can invest, building a lucrative investment portfolio takes research, patience, and a little bit of risk. If you had invested in Murphy USA ten years ago, you’re probably feeling pretty good about your investment today.
A $1000 investment made in July 2016 would be worth $8,072.44, or a gain of 707.24%, as of July 15, 2026, according to our calculations. This return excludes dividends but includes price appreciation.
In comparison, the S&P 500’s gained 248.64% and the price of gold went up 193.40% over the same time frame.
Analysts are anticipating more upside for MUSA.
Murphy USA benefits from its high-volume, low-cost business model, strategic Walmart-adjacent locations, efficient fuel sourcing infrastructure, structural cost leadership, leading nicotine category performance, accelerating store expansion, and larger-format stores that support higher merchandise sales, fuel margins, customer engagement and long-term revenue growth. However, the company remains exposed to fuel price volatility, weak discretionary merchandise demand, intensifying competition, a sizable debt burden, pricing pressure from its discount fuel strategy, and rising labor and operating costs tied to expansion, all of which could weigh on margins, profitability and financial flexibility, particularly if consumer spending or fuel market conditions weaken. Hence, investors are advised to wait for a better entry point.
The stock has jumped 7.34% over the past four weeks. Additionally, no earnings estimate has gone lower in the past two months, compared to 2 higher, for fiscal 2026; the consensus estimate has moved up as well.
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Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) : Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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