Key Points
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Rivian recently raised its 2026 delivery guidance.
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But rising costs mean that it no longer expects adjusted EBITDA profitability for 2027.
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Management recently issued 75 million additional shares of common stock, raising $1.2 billion, but adding to shareholder concerns.
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Shares of the electric automaker Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) were volatile in the first half of this year, falling 11.9%, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence. Despite the drop, there was some good news for the company, including the launch of its new R2 vehicle and management raising its 2026 delivery estimates.
Here’s what went wrong (and right) in the first half of 2026 and what investors can expect from Rivian for the rest of the year.
Higher spending, more losses, and a new vehicle launch
Rivian started the year on the wrong foot, with its shares falling 25% in January after two analysts downgraded the stock with a sell rating. Analysts and investors alike have become more pessimistic about the EV industry, and their intuitions aren’t wrong.
EV sales in the U.S. declined 28% in the first quarter of 2026. Rising costs of electric vehicles and the expiration of EV tax credits have led to lower demand. That’s resulting in a difficult selling environment for many EV companies, not just Rivian.
Rivian shareholders were also unimpressed when the company released its Q1 2026 results at the end of April. Concerns about rising expenses and widening losses fueled a sell-off in early May. The company reported an adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) loss in the first quarter of $427 million, worse than its $329 million loss in the year-ago quarter. Capital expenditures also rose 10% to $372 million.
Rivian’s increased spending and ongoing losses resulted in the company eliminating its previous goal of being EBITDA positive in 2027 (on an adjusted basis). Management said the shift was “due to an expected increase in R&D spend associated with the acceleration of its autonomy roadmap.”
But it wasn’t all bad news in the first half of the year. Rivian’s management released details for its new R2 SUV in March, with an initial Performance trim priced just under $58,000 and a Standard trim version expected to launch for around $45,000 in late 2027.
Investors received additional good news when management said second-quarter deliveries of 12,194 topped the company’s guidance of 9,000 to 11,000 vehicles. Management then raised its 2026 delivery guidance to between 65,000 and 70,000 vehicles, up from its previous range of 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles.
More volatility is likely ahead in 2026
The second-half of 2026 is already well underway, and it’s started pretty rough for Rivian shareholders. I know, because I’m one of them.
The company’s shares tumbled in early July after Rivian announced a capital raise of about $1.2 billion, through the sale of an additional 75 million shares. The stock plunged 18% after the announcement.
Rivian’s shares will likely remain volatile this year, with the company’s increased spending and difficult EV environment mixing with potentially good news from its R2 sales. If you’re holding your Rivian shares, it’s probably best to settle in for a long (and potentially bumpy) ride for the rest of the year.
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Chris Neiger has positions in Rivian Automotive. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
