Key Points
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Management sees a $28 billion addressable market, but at least one Wall Street analyst thinks it’s $30 trillion.
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SpaceX’s three segments work together to capitalize on opportunities in space, and this could be the global infrastructure of the future.
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For now, growth is healthy but not dramatic, and SpaceX is reporting losses.
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Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), also known as SpaceX, is a polarizing stock. One one side of the fence, you have people touting the company’s massive opportunities in space exploration, satellite broadband, and artificial intelligence (AI), while on the other side, people point to its deep bottom-line losses and astronomical valuation.
Wall Street coverage has started out strong, and one analyst thinks the stock is going to reach $800 over the next 12 months, a 488% gain from Tuesday’s closing price. If that were to happen, SpaceX would be valued at $8.7 trillion, making it the most valuable company in the world, at least based on the current market caps of its megacap peers. Here’s why I don’t think that’s going to happen.
The $28 trillion opportunity
SpaceX has grouped its operations into three business units since its merger with xAI earlier this year. Its core mission is to put people and payloads into space, and develop multiplanetary living. To that end, it’s the largest rocket launcher in the world, working with both private and government clients. Elon Musk fans are excited about this revolutionary vision, and since Musk has been involved with several transformational companies in the past, including Tesla and PayPal Holdings, they’re confident about his prospects in this case, too.
The other two segments, satellite broadband and AI, work in tandem with the space business. SpaceX already has more than 9,600 satellites in low Earth orbit, where they provide broadband internet connectivity in regions that lack other alternatives. Musk also envisions putting data center satellites in space, powered by the sun, to support the growth of AI.
Management has pegged the company’s total addressable market at $28 trillion, and Wall Street is excited about the opportunity. Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale (the one who put that $800 price target on the stock) pegs it at $30 trillion and initiated coverage of SpaceX stock with a strong buy rating. “Just as railroads, electric grids, and the Internet reshaped prior economic eras,” he said, “we believe SpaceX is building the foundational platform for the next generation of industrial capacity.”
Why it doesn’t look likely
SpaceX may or may not have such a massive addressable market — which would be larger than any country’s gross domestic product except that of the United States — and in the near term at least, it’s not demonstrating signs of reaching it. The company as a whole has been reporting healthy, but not dramatic, growth. It’s also reporting losses, and as it starts adding stock-based compensation to its expenses, those losses may widen before they contract.
In Q1 2026, total revenue increased 15% year over year to $4.7 billion, with a $2 billion loss. Both the space segment and the AI segment are losing money, although the Starlink satellite business reported a $1.2 billion operating profit in the quarter.
These kinds of numbers don’t indicate a stock that’s going to increase more than fourfold over the next year, and so far, the stock has been falling. I’d take the sell-side analyst’s optimistic view with a very large grain of salt.
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Jennifer Saibil has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends PayPal and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: short September 2026 $47.50 calls on PayPal. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
