Key Points
Rate-hike anxiety has driven cryptocurrency prices lower all year, but if the market is reading the tea leaves correctly, the past two weeks have eased some of the pressure. A weak June payrolls report and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s recent guarded remarks have eased the odds of a July rate hike to just 22%.
Two cryptocurrencies in particular are likely to benefit directly from that probability dropping: Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Hyperliquid (CRYPTO: HYPE). Both are worth buying right now, but that was true before as well. Let’s dive in and map out why they stand to gain in the near term.
By some metrics, buying Bitcoin is a bet on liquidity
Historically, Bitcoin’s price action tends to track how many dollars are moving through the global financial system. Tight policy pushes speculative capital out toward safer pastures, but when central banks ease, it flows back in, often in spades. Given that these tendencies are widely known, it often only takes a shift in expectations about future liquidity to produce changes in the market.
Bitcoin has been grinding down from its record highs set in October 2025, and in June, U.S. spot https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-hike-interest-rates-july-060507499.html%203rd-8th%20grafs
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Two%20cryptocurrencies%20in%20particular%20are%20likely%20to%20benefit%20directly%20from%20that%20probability%20dropping:%20Bitcoin%20(CRYPTO:%20BTC),%20and%20Hyperliquid%20(CRYPTO:%20HYPE).%20Both%20are%20worth%20buying%20right%20now,%20but%20that%20was%20true%20before%20as%20well.%20Let’s%20dive%20in%20and%20map%20out%20why%20they%20stand%20to%20gain%20in%20the%20near%20term.
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By%20some%20metrics,%20buying%20Bitcoin%20is%20a%20bet%20on%20liquidity
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Historically,%20Bitcoin’s%20month-to-month%20price%20action%20tends%20to%20track%20how%20many%20dollars%20are%20moving%20through%20the%20global%20financial%20system.https://www.lynalden.com/bitcoin-a-global-liquidity-barometer/%20first%203%20bullets%20and%201st%20and%203rd%20sections%20Tight%20policy%20pushes%20speculative%20capital%20out%20towards%20safer%20pastures,%20but%20when%20central%20banks%20ease,%20it%20flows%20back%20in,%20often%20in%20spades.%20Given%20that%20these%20tendencies%20are%20widely%20known,%20it%20often%20only%20takes%20a%20shift%20in%20expectations%20about%20future%20liquidity%20to%20produce%20changes%20in%20the%20market.
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Bitcoin%20has%20been%20grinding%20down%20from%20its%20record%20highs%20set%20in%20October%202025,%20and%20in%20June,%20U.S.%20spot%20Bitcoin%20exchange-traded%20funds%20(ETFs)%20saw%20capital%20outflows%20of%20%244.5%20billion,%20their%20worst%20ever.https://financefeeds.com/bitcoin-price-prediction/%20price%20and%20flow%20bullets%20Those%20ETFs%20hold%20about%201.45%20million%20BTC%20between%20them,%20and%20their%20marginal%20flow%20is%20a%20big%20factor%20in%20the%20coin’s%20price.%20If%20Warsh%20talks%20down%20rate%20hike%20risk,%20that%20marginal%20bid%20is%20likely%20to%20return%20–%20and%20it%20might%20even%20stick%20around,%20assuming%20that%20the%20Fed%20does%20what%20it%20signals%20it’s%20going%20to%20do.
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Of%20course,%20understanding%20the%20Fed’s%20future%20behavior%20is%20more%20difficult%20than%20before%20with%20the%20new%20chairman.%20Warsh%20has%20recently%20explicitly%20said%20that%20inflation%20is%20too%20high.https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/01/kevin-warsh-ecb-forum-live-updates.html%20Warsh%20Sintra%20%22too%20high%22%20section%20If%20there’s%20another%20hot%20inflation%20print,%20the%20rate%20hike%20narrative%20could%20resurge%20very%20quickly.
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But%20even%20if%20that%20happens,%20it’ll%20still%20be%20worth%20buying%20Bitcoin.%20Over%20the%20long%20run,%20fundamental%20factors%20like%20its%20constricting%20supply%20have%20a%20bigger%20impact%20than%20the%20drivers%20like%20the%20Fed%20and%20the%20macro%20environment,%20which%20are%20contained%20to%20affecting%20the%20short%20and%20medium%20term.
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Hyperliquid%20could%20benefit%20from%20looser%20rates%20in%20more%20than%20one%20way
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Hyperliquid%20is%20the%20largest%20decentralized%20perpetual%20futures%20exchange,%20and%20its%20native%20token,%20HYPE,%20has%20one%20of%20the%20most%20direct%20value%20capture%20designs%20in%20the%20crypto%20sector.
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Close%20to%2099%%20of%20the%20transaction%20fees%20traders%20incur%20on%20its%20platform%20are%20converted%20into%20buybacks%20of%20its%20tokens,%20thereby%20reducing%20the%20outstanding%20supply%20and%20rewarding%20holders,%20much%20like%20a%20stock%20buyback.https://www.dextools.io/news/hyperliquid-hype-unlock-july-2026-buyback-fund-onchain-data%203rd%20graf%20Unlike%20a%20stock%20buyback,%20the%20buying%20of%20HYPE%20happens%20constantly%20and%20mechanically%20as%20a%20result%20of%20the%20platform,%20and%20no%20board%20can%20pause%20it.https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2026/05/23/why-hyperliquids-hype-is-rising-and-why-the-answer-is-not-the-etf/%204th-6th%20grafs%20Its%20quarterly%20buybacks%20were%20%24148.6%20million%20in%20Q2%202026,%20and%20%24165.3%20million%20in%20the%20quarter%20before%20that.https://defillama.com/protocol/hyperliquid
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If%20a%20softer%20Federal%20Reserve%20stance%20revives%20the%20market’s%20risk%20appetite,%20its%20volume%20of%20perpetual%20futures%20contracts%20changing%20hands%20will%20rise,%20powering%20more%20buybacks%20and%20boosting%20the%20price%20of%20the%20coin.%20Over%20the%20past%2030%20days%20alone,%20there%20was%20%24247.9%20billion%20in%20perpetuals%20trading%20volume%20on%20the%20network,%20so%20it%20definitely%20gets%20enough%20traffic%20for%20nuances%20in%20the%20Fed’s%20disposition%20to%20be%20impactful%20to%20the%20main%20metrics%20that%20drive%20its%20value.https://defillama.com/protocol/perps/hyperliquid-perps
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At%20the%20same%20time,%20if%20rates%20are%20cut%20or%20held%20steady,%20there%20will%20be%20more%20capital%20that’s%20willing%20to%20allocate%20into%20risky%20cryptoassets%20like%20Hyperliquid,%20so%20it%20benefits%20twice%20from%20the%20same%20phenomenon,%20assuming%20it%20happens.%20That%20could%20make%20for%20a%20powerful%20cocktail%20for%20its%20price.
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But%20Hyperliquid%20also%20stands%20to%20gain%20if%20the%20Fed%20decides%20to%20hike%20rates%20instead.
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Thanks%20to%20a%20deal%20it%20inked%20in%20May%20with%20Coinbase%20Global%20(NASDAQ:%20COIN),%20the%20interest%20that%20is%20generated%20by%20the%20pool%20of%20cash%20equivalents%20that%20back%20the%20USDC%20(CRYPTO:%20USDC)%20stablecoin%20held%20on%20Hyperliquid’s%20platform%20will%20now%20mostly%20be%20remitted%20to%20Hyperliquid%20instead%20of%20retained%20by%20USDC’s%20issuer,%20Circle%20Internet%20Group%20(NYSE:%20CRCL).https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/05/18/hyperliquid-s-usdc-deal-could-supercharge-hype-pressure-circle-coinbase-margins-analysts-say%20first%207%20grafs%20At%20the%20current%20interest%20rates,%20that%20means%20it%20will%20be%20bringing%20in%20upwards%20of%20%24135%20million%20annually,%20which%20will%20also%20be%20directed%20towards%20its%20buybacks.%20If%20rates%20are%20hiked,%20the%20yield%20from%20the%20Treasuries%20that%20comprise%20those%20cash%20equivalents%20will%20rise,%20and%20Hyperliquid%20will%20get%20a%20bigger%20check.
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And%20setting%20up%20a%20win-win%20situation%20like%20that%20is%20a%20decent%20reason%20to%20consider%20buying%20Hyperliquid.
“>Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw capital outflows of $4.5 billion, the most ever. Those ETFs hold about 1.45 million bitcoins in total, and their marginal flow is a big factor in the coin’s price. If Warsh talks down the rate-hike risk, that marginal bid is likely to return — and it might even stick around, assuming the Fed does what it signals it will do.
Of course, understanding the Fed’s future behavior is more difficult than before with the new chairman, who has said he wants to reduce guidance on rates. Warsh has recently said that inflation is too high. If there’s another hot inflation report, the rate-hike narrative could resurface very quickly.
But even if that happens, it will still be worth buying Bitcoin. In the long run, fundamental factors like its slowing supply growth have a bigger impact than the drivers like the Fed and the macro environment, which are limited to affecting the short and medium term.
Hyperliquid could benefit from lower rates in more than one way
Hyperliquid is the largest decentralized perpetual futures exchange, and its native token, HYPE, has one of the most direct value capture designs in the crypto sector.
Close to 99% of the transaction fees traders incur on its platform are devoted to buybacks of HYPE tokens, thereby reducing the supply outstanding and rewarding holders, much like a stock buyback. Unlike a stock buyback, HYPE purchasing happens constantly and mechanically as a result of the platform’s structure, and no board can pause it. Its quarterly buybacks were $148.6 million in Q2 2026 and $165.3 million in the quarter before that.
If a softer Fed stance on interest rates revives the market’s risk appetite, its volume of perpetual futures contracts changing hands will rise, powering more buybacks and boosting the price of the coin. During the past 30 days alone, there was $247.9 billion in perpetuals trading volume on the network, so it definitely gets enough traffic for nuances in the Fed’s disposition to have a limited impact on the main metrics that drive its value.
At the same time, if rates are cut or held steady, there will be more capital that’s willing to allocate into risky crypto assets like Hyperliquid, so it benefits twice from the same phenomenon, assuming it happens. That could make for a powerful cocktail for its price.
But Hyperliquid also stands to gain if the Fed decides to hike rates instead.
Thanks to a deal it inked in May with Coinbase Global, the interest that is generated by the pool of cash equivalents that back the USDC stablecoin held on Hyperliquid’s platform will now mostly be remitted to Hyperliquid instead of retained by USDC’s issuer, Circle Internet Group. At the current interest rates, that means it will be bringing in more than $135 million annually, which will also be directed toward HYPE buybacks. If rates are hiked, the yield from the Treasuries that comprise those cash equivalents will rise, and Hyperliquid will get a bigger check.
And setting up a win-win situation like that is a decent reason to consider buying Hyperliquid.
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Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and Hyperliquid. The Motley Fool recommends Coinbase Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
