Key Points
When a company’s valuation is high and wildly above what its fundamentals justify, that’s a clear sign that expectations are high. While that can be an encouraging sign that there is a ton of growth likely ahead for the business, it also signifies risk, because if it falls short and the growth story unravels, the stock could be poised for a significant sell-off.
One company whose valuation hinges on its growth story is Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), which is often referred to as just SpaceX. Its market cap has been hovering around $2 trillion since its shares went public about a month ago. It has some tremendous growth opportunities, and here’s just how big analysts believe the business will get in five years.
SpaceX’s revenue could top $565 billion by 2031
In recent years, there has been some solid growth, but nothing like what analysts expect from the company in the future. From $10.4 billion in revenue in 2023, the company’s top line would rise by 35% to just over $14 billion in 2024, and then by another 33% in 2025, totaling $18.7 billion last year. That’s a strong growth rate, but if analysts are right, then the company’s top line could be about to take off, significantly.
The bull case around SpaceX centers around its growth potential. Today, it trades at around 100 times its trailing revenue, but if the business gets much larger in the future, then its high valuation may be much more tenable. By 2031, Wall Street analysts project that its revenue will soar to $565 billion — that’s more than 30 times what it achieved this past year. Those kinds of numbers would make it among the largest companies in terms of revenue. E-commerce giant Amazon is the leader today, with its revenue totaling $743 billion over its past four quarters.
Expectations are high, but so too is the risk
SpaceX has some mammoth opportunities in artificial intelligence, space, and telecom. The problem, however, is that kind of significant growth means expectations are going to be through the roof for SpaceX. Not only will the company likely need to ramp up spending at a time when investors are growing more concerned about high capital expenditures, but it will also need to execute and prove that it’s making the most of those investments. It’s a tall task, to say the least.
Given that the stock isn’t cheap, investors who buy it at its current levels aren’t leaving themselves with any margin for error. While SpaceX’s business may do well and achieve its lofty expectations, there’s also a strong chance it falls well short of them, which is why taking a wait-and-see approach with the space stock may be the safest option right now.
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David Jagielski, CPA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
